A delegation of US government officials arrived in Niamey, the capital of Nigeria, on the 21st. Thursday They will discuss withdrawing about 1,000 troops from the country and ending the largest U.S. military presence in what is considered a global region. epicenter About Islamist violence.
The withdrawal is at the request of the country's ruling military junta, which seized power in a coup last July, as Biden administration officials seek to maintain two U.S. military bases in the country and return Niger to civilian rule during a series of military regimes. This was despite extensive diplomatic efforts. Scenes from contentious meetings in Washington and Niamey.
The cuts follow the withdrawal of French troops late last year, when a spate of military coups across the Sahel disrupted Western counterterrorism efforts and paved the way for the deployment of Russian mercenaries.
Dozens of Russian military instructors arrived in Niger this month, reflecting a pattern previously seen in Mali and Burkina Faso, where operatives of the Wagner mercenary group entered both countries shortly after the French withdrawal.
On Thursday, new york times A small unit of U.S. special forces in neighboring Chad will also be withdrawn after officials there questioned the future of the U.S. presence there. U.S. defense officials said the troop redeployment was a temporary measure until after Chad's presidential elections, scheduled for early next month.
The US withdrawal from Niger is seen as part of a broader trend across the region, with military regimes expelling Western troops while welcoming in Russian troops, analysts said. They are concerned that spiraling security instability will increase in the region.
“My concern is that if the Russians come… they're going to keep making the terrorism problem worse instead of improving it, and once they've extracted what they want to extract, they're going to pack up and go home. The location is a nightmare. ,” said Colin P. Clark, research director at the Soufan Group, a global intelligence and security consultancy.
Biden administration officials have repeatedly said, Said They don't want African leaders to choose between competing powers, but the move comes as multiple players vie for influence in Africa, where both Russia and China are looking to expand. It highlights how complicated U.S. security assistance efforts are becoming.
According to Russian and Russian media reports, anti-aircraft batteries were among the equipment unloaded by Russian troops upon their arrival in Niger. nigerian National media. The move was widely seen as an over-the-top attack on U.S. drone operations in the country, as local insurgents pose no threat from the air.
At the same time, former U.S. government officials, regional analysts and counterterrorism experts said the loss of two U.S. military bases in Niger would likely have limited impact on regional counterterrorism efforts.
“There are practical implications and there are symbolic implications,” Cameron-Hudson said. He is a senior fellow in the Africa Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and previously held various positions in the U.S. government working on African issues.
The role of the U.S. military in Niger has declined in recent years after a 2017 ambush killed four U.S. special forces and four Nigerian soldiers, leading to a reassessment of U.S. combat operations in the country. .
Following the attack, the US role was limited to using manned aircraft and unmanned aircraft to conduct surveillance flights over the area and gather signals intelligence.
All counterterrorism operations were then suspended in the wake of last year's coup, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance flights resumed in September for armed protection purposes only. US Department of Defense.
“I think the bigger influence here is on Washington's reputation, on its relationship with the United States, on its perception of being ousted by Russia,” Hudson said. “That's what's actually hurting Washington more than any practical impact.”
U.S. officials have not yet announced a schedule for Niger's drawdown. At a Monday briefing, Pentagon spokesman Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder declined to comment on whether the Pentagon would consider redeploying troops elsewhere in the region, but said the U.S. remains committed to working with regional partners. They said they would work together to “explore options” to address the threat of terrorism. ”
In January, wall street journal Washington is reportedly considering using airfields in the coastal states of Benin, Ghana and Ivory Coast for regional surveillance flights in light of the Niger coup.
A small U.S. military unit was first sent to Niger in 2013 to monitor al-Qaeda-linked extremist groups.
Over the past decade, Islamist militias including jamaat nusrat al islam wal muslimin (The al-Qaeda-linked group JNIM and the Islamic State of the Greater Sahara (ISGS) have steadily grown, driven by weak governance, inequality and a patchwork of local grievances.
“The Sahel in particular is a microcosm of the problems we will see in other parts of the world,” Clark said, noting that climate change is also increasing tensions in the region.
Political violence and attacks on civilians have soared in recent years, with more than 11,600 people killed in Islamist violence last year. the study By the African Center for Strategic Studies, a Congressional-funded research agency within the Department of Defense.
In both Burkina Faso and Mali, JNIM and ISGS control large areas of territory. Joseph Siegle, director of research at the Africa Center, said that involvement with transnational terrorist organizations may have added an “ideological fig leaf” to their operations, but the link is He said it was mainly rhetorical.
“These are almost autonomous, almost completely autonomous violent extremist groups that have emerged on their own and will continue to exist on their own,” he said.
U.S. officials and experts believe that groups such as JNIM and ISGS pose little immediate threat to the United States, despite their concentration in the Sahel region.
“From public information and other research, there is little, if any, indication that Sahel extremist groups have the intent or ability to attack the U.S. mainland,” Andrew Lebovich said. Researcher at the Clingendael Institute in the Netherlands. “They have been attacking Western targets and abducting Western nationals in the region, but so far they have shown no interest in moving these attacks out of the region.”
US President Joe Biden took office pledging to refocus the United States away from the so-called forever wars, the proliferation of unrestrained counterterrorism operations established across the Middle East, Asia and Africa after 9/11.
A former senior Biden administration official, who requested anonymity to discuss policy deliberations, said that while the circumstances for a U.S. withdrawal from Niger are “less than optimal,” the U.S. military base there is “a vestige of past counterterrorism approaches.” Ta.
Following a coup in Niger that followed military takeovers of the governments of Burkina Faso, Guinea, and Mali, U.S. officials expended significant diplomatic efforts to return the country to civilian rule and maintain a U.S. military presence in the country.
Kamisa Camara, Mali's former foreign minister, said, That's the job America has to do.” “It's not an easy job.”
But critics say the administration is leaving the region on the back burner and fumbling in times of crisis.
“We must acknowledge that the recent coups in the Sahel and West Africa have received fairly broad public support from the peoples of the affected countries. “Security is a higher priority than traps,” J. Peter said. Pham served as special envoy for the Sahel region during the Trump administration. “Lectures about elections not only fall on deaf ears; [they are] It is likely to be counterproductive to U.S. interests. ”
Tensions between the U.S. and Niger reached a peak in March after Molly Fee, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for African affairs, and Michael Langley, the commander of U.S. Africa Command, visited Niger to negotiate a return to the country. To civil government. U.S. officials also expressed concern about information indicating the country is in talks with Iran about granting access to Niger's vast uranium reserves, the newspaper said. journal.
Immediately after the visit, junta spokesman Colonel Amadou Abdulrahman announced the suspension of military cooperation with the United States and criticized US officials for not following diplomatic protocol during the visit.
“Niger deplores the intent of the U.S. delegation to deny the sovereign Nigerian people the right to choose partners and partnerships that can truly support the fight against terrorism,” Abdullahmane said in a statement. Ta. statement on television. “The Government of Niger also strongly condemns the condescending attitude of the head of the American delegation, accompanied by threats of retaliation against the Government and people of Niger.”
A former Biden administration official disputed claims that Washington was pushing too hard to encourage Niger's military leaders to return to democratic rule.
“We wanted to continue working with the government of Niger to help bring stability and security to the people of Niger,” the official said. “I think we were quite flexible, but after several months there has been no sign of progress towards a return to democratic governance, no even a conceptual transition timetable, and our interests are in jeopardy. I was wondering if it was a match.”
FP staff writer Robbie Grammer contributed to this report.